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Paju Citizen vs Yongin City Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 10:30

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Yongin City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.8%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 34.5% 2.90 +9.9%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 35.0% 42.9% 2.33 -18.4%

Over 2.5 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.4% 3.65 +3.1%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 42.8% 34.5% 2.90 +24.1%

Away O1.5 35.9% 43.5% 2.30 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1✓ 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paju Citizen1.3

Yongin City1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.00

YONGIN CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Paju Citizen (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +9.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Yongin City (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paju Citizen face Yongin City in South-Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paju Citizen a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Yongin City 35%, so Paju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Paju Citizen and 1.2 for Yongin City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paju Citizen are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Yongin City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Paju Citizen vs Yongin City Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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