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Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 10:00

Seoul W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-18.7%0-210.9%0-39.0%0-4+10.1%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.8%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.3%2-13.2%2-24.0%2-33.3%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.2%3-31.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 22.7% 4.40 -26.2%

Draw 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

Away win 67.1% 64.5% 1.55 +4.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

BTTS 55.6% 65.4% 1.53 -14.9%

Home O1.5 33.7% 34.1% 2.93 -1.3%

Away O1.5 69.2% 64.5% 1.55 +7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 67% / xG 0.9-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–3 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul W0.9

Suwon FMC W2.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL W · PPG 1.80

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.57

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Seoul W (H) 12.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -26.2%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.8%

Suwon FMC W (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul W face Suwon FMC W in South-Korea - WK-League on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul W a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Suwon FMC W 67%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Seoul W and 2.5 for Suwon FMC W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.57 for Suwon FMC W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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