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Dandenong City vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Melbourne

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.5%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.5%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 33.3% 3.00 +27.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 33.2% 48.8% 2.05 -31.9%

Over 2.5 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 40.0% 2.50 -6.3%

BTTS 61.2% 66.7% 1.50 -8.2%

Home O1.5 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

Away O1.5 38.4% 55.6% 1.80 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.2%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.5

South Melbourne1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.80

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.11

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.80) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.11)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 42.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +27.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

South Melbourne (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face South Melbourne in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 42% chance, the draw 24% and South Melbourne 33%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dandenong City and 1.3 for South Melbourne (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.11 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.2%.

Dandenong City vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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