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JBK vs Narpes Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 15:30

JBK

PPG 1.80 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Narpes Kraft

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.4%0-22.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-02.5%1-15.5%1-26.2%1-34.6%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.1%2-35.3%2-4+5.0%3 3-02.2%3-14.8%3-25.4%3-34.1%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.8%4+-25.3%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 55.6% 1.80 -30.5%

Draw 20.9% 27.0% 3.70 -13.6%

Away win 40.5% 29.4% 3.40 +37.7%

Over 2.5 72.1% 80.0% 1.25 -9.9%

Over 3.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

BTTS 69.4% 77.5% 1.29 -10.5%

Home O1.5 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Away O1.5 68.2% 52.4% 1.91 +30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 11.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.4%

H 39% / xG 2.3-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–1 5.5%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JBK2.3

Narpes Kraft2.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JBK · PPG 1.80

NARPES KRAFT · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

JBK (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -30.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.6%

Narpes Kraft (A) 40.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

JBK face Narpes Kraft in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JBK a 39% chance, the draw 21% and Narpes Kraft 41%, so Narpes Kraft are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for JBK and 2.2 for Narpes Kraft (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JBK are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Narpes Kraft. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 4-2.

JBK vs Narpes Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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