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Manly Utd vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 07:00

Manly Utd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Rockdale

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Away 57% chance

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-115.6%0-213.5%0-37.8%0-4+4.9%1 1-06.1%1-110.6%1-29.1%1-35.2%1-4+3.3%2 2-02.1%2-13.6%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 28.6% 3.50 -50.3%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -14.5%

Away win 62.7% 54.1% 1.85 +16.0%

Over 2.5 43.0% 63.7% 1.57 -32.5%

Over 3.5 22.1% 40.8% 2.45 -45.9%

BTTS 40.3% 66.7% 1.50 -39.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 161 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -13.4%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob40.3%

A 63% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.6%

#2 0–2 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd0.7

Rockdale1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.25

ROCKDALE · PPG 2.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 14.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -50.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.5%

Rockdale (A) 62.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Rockdale 63%, so Rockdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Manly Utd and 1.7 for Rockdale (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.25 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Manly Utd vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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