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Mt Druitt Town vs Northern Tigers Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Mt Druitt Town

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Northern Tigers

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+17.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-19.6%0-210.7%0-37.9%0-4+7.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.1%2-24.5%2-33.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 43.5% 2.30 -28.4%

Draw 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

Away win 55.9% 39.2% 2.55 +42.5%

Over 2.5 62.0% 69.4% 1.44 -10.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 49.5% 2.02 -20.6%

BTTS 55.0% 74.1% 1.35 -25.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 54.6% 1.83 -43.5%

Away O1.5 66.6% 56.5% 1.77 +17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.0%

A 56% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 2–1 4.1%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mt Druitt Town0.9

Northern Tigers2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MT DRUITT TOWN · PPG 0.79

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 1.64

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.30 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mt Druitt Town (H) 22.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.2%

Northern Tigers (A) 55.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +42.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mt Druitt Town face Northern Tigers in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mt Druitt Town a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Northern Tigers 56%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mt Druitt Town and 2.2 for Northern Tigers (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mt Druitt Town are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.64 for Northern Tigers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Mt Druitt Town vs Northern Tigers Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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