Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 / Central Coast II vs Mt Druitt Town

Central Coast II vs Mt Druitt Town Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:00

Central Coast II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mt Druitt Town

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.1%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.9%1-17.4%1-25.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.9%3-25.2%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-17.1%4+-25.4%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 40.0% 2.50 +33.5%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 24.5% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 46.7% 53.2% 1.88 -12.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 56.8% 1.76 +14.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.0% 1.64 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Coast II2.4

Mt Druitt Town1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL COAST II · PPG 1.00

MT DRUITT TOWN · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Central Coast II (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +33.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Mt Druitt Town (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Coast II face Mt Druitt Town in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Coast II a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Mt Druitt Town 25%, so Central Coast II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Central Coast II and 1.5 for Mt Druitt Town (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Coast II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.64 for Mt Druitt Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 2-4.

Central Coast II vs Mt Druitt Town Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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