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Prospect United vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 30 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 10:00

Prospect United

PPG 0.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hurstville FC

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.1%0-26.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.2%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 48.8% 2.05 -19.2%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 36.0% 37.0% 2.70 -2.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.2% 2.21 -18.9%

BTTS 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 57.1% 1.75 -34.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 49.8% 2.01 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prospect United1.3

Hurstville FC1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PROSPECT UNITED · PPG 0.64

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Prospect United (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Hurstville FC (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prospect United face Hurstville FC in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prospect United a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Hurstville FC 36%, so Prospect United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Prospect United and 1.5 for Hurstville FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prospect United are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.79 for Hurstville FC. This match finished 3-0.

Prospect United vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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