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Hills Brumbies vs Central Coast II Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 07:00

Hills Brumbies

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Central Coast II

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.2%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.5%1-18.9%1-26.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.6%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.0%

Over 2.5 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 54.1% 1.85 -20.1%

BTTS 62.8% 71.4% 1.40 -12.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 73.5% 1.36 -18.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.8%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hills Brumbies2.1

Central Coast II1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLS BRUMBIES · PPG 1.64

CENTRAL COAST II · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hills Brumbies (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Central Coast II (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hills Brumbies face Central Coast II in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hills Brumbies a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Central Coast II 24%, so Hills Brumbies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hills Brumbies and 1.4 for Central Coast II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hills Brumbies are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.21 for Central Coast II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 8-0.

Hills Brumbies vs Central Coast II Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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