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Newcastle Jets II vs Bankstown City Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 07:00

Newcastle Jets II

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

2 – 9

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bankstown City Lions

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.3%0-24.9%0-33.8%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.2%1-17.2%1-28.3%1-36.3%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.7%2-16.1%2-27.0%2-35.3%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.5%3-13.4%3-23.9%3-33.0%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 22.2% 4.50 +18.8%

Draw 21.4% 22.2% 4.50 -2.2%

Away win 49.4% 66.7% 1.50 -25.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%

Over 3.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

Away O1.5 67.8% 73.0% 1.37 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-9

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.1%

A 49% / xG 1.7-2.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle Jets II1.7

Bankstown City Lions2.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE JETS II · PPG 0.93

BANKSTOWN CITY LIONS · PPG 1.71

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle Jets II (H) 29.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +18.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.2%

Bankstown City Lions (A) 49.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle Jets II face Bankstown City Lions in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle Jets II a 29% chance, the draw 21% and Bankstown City Lions 49%, so Bankstown City Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newcastle Jets II and 2.3 for Bankstown City Lions (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle Jets II are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.71 for Bankstown City Lions. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 2-9.

Newcastle Jets II vs Bankstown City Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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