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APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 06:30

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sydney Olympic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 88.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.4%1-12.6%1-21.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.8%2-15.2%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-019.6%4+-121.2%4+-211.5%4+-34.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.0% 85.5% 1.17 +1.8%

Draw 7.8% 17.2% 5.80 -54.8%

Away win 5.2% 7.7% 13.00 -32.4%

Over 2.5 88.7% 75.2% 1.33 +18.0%

Over 3.5 75.6% 54.6% 1.83 +38.4%

BTTS 65.1% 56.5% 1.77 +15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 88%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob65.1%

H 87% / xG 4.1-1.1 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1✓ 7.2%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 4–0 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 5–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt4.1

Sydney Olympic1.1

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.7% · O3.5 PROB 75.6%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 3.00

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 87.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV +1.8%

Draw 7.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -54.8%

Sydney Olympic (A) 5.2%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Sydney Olympic in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 87% chance, the draw 8% and Sydney Olympic 5%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for APIA Leichhardt and 1.1 for Sydney Olympic (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 4-1.

APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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