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SC Wanderers vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:00

SC Wanderers

PPG 0.75 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.8%0-27.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 40.0% 2.50 -30.3%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -21.8%

Away win 48.3% 43.5% 2.30 +11.1%

Over 2.5 57.1% — — —

Over 3.5 34.6% — — —

BTTS 58.6% 71.4% 1.40 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.6%

A 48% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Wanderers1.3

Logan Lightning1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SC WANDERERS · PPG 0.75

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SC Wanderers (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -30.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -21.8%

Logan Lightning (A) 48.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Wanderers face Logan Lightning in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Wanderers a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Logan Lightning 48%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SC Wanderers and 1.7 for Logan Lightning (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Wanderers are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Logan Lightning. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 5-2.

SC Wanderers vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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