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Wollongong W. vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-111.8%0-27.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-17.4%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.9%

Away win 37.5% 37.0% 2.70 +1.3%

Over 2.5 40.7% 56.5% 1.77 -28.0%

Over 3.5 20.3% 33.3% 3.00 -39.1%

BTTS 46.9% 61.7% 1.62 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.1

Sutherland S.1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.75

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.9%

Sutherland S. (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Sutherland S. 38%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wollongong W. and 1.2 for Sutherland S. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Sutherland S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Wollongong W. vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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