Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / Sydney FC B vs Blacktown City

Sydney FC B vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:00

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Blacktown City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.4%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.8%1-17.7%1-26.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-16.5%3-25.2%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.2%4+-24.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 50.0% 2.00 +5.6%

Draw 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -23.6%

Away win 27.1% 33.9% 2.95 -20.1%

Over 2.5 73.8% 65.4% 1.53 +12.9%

Over 3.5 53.6% 43.5% 2.30 +23.3%

BTTS 71.3% 70.4% 1.42 +1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob71.3%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 2–2✓ 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC B2.3

Blacktown City1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.8% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.50

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC B (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.6%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -23.6%

Blacktown City (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC B face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC B a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Blacktown City 27%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sydney FC B and 1.6 for Blacktown City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Sydney FC B vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions