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Quilmes vs A. Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 21:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

A. Atlanta

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.7%0-117.1%0-25.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-111.9%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.2%2-14.1%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 40.8% 2.45 -15.5%

Draw 35.3% 36.4% 2.75 -2.9%

Away win 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Over 2.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 32.3% 3.10 +4.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.6% 3.90 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.7%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 0–1 17.1%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes0.7

A. Atlanta0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.88

A. ATLANTA · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.5%

Draw 35.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.9%

A. Atlanta (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face A. Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 35% chance, the draw 35% and A. Atlanta 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Quilmes and 0.7 for A. Atlanta (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.63 for A. Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Quilmes vs A. Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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