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Ciudad Bolivar vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.11 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Godoy Cruz

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.3%0-116.4%0-24.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.2%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.6%2-13.8%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.5%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 33.9% 2.95 +5.3%

Draw 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

Away win 27.8% 37.7% 2.65 -15.8%

Over 2.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 27.8% 3.60 +21.3%

Away O1.5 18.0% 29.9% 3.35 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.3%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 0–1 16.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.7

Godoy Cruz0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.11

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +5.3%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -5.1%

Godoy Cruz (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face Godoy Cruz in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 36% chance, the draw 37% and Godoy Cruz 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.6 for Godoy Cruz (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.67 for Godoy Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Ciudad Bolivar vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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