Today / Longford Town vs UC Dublin

Longford Town vs UC Dublin Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Longford Town

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

UC Dublin

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-115.1%0-29.3%0-33.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.6%2-15.7%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.3%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 44.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.7% — — —

Away O1.5 39.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town0.9

UC Dublin1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.70

UC DUBLIN · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.70) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UC Dublin (A) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face UC Dublin on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 28% chance, the draw 28% and UC Dublin 44%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Longford Town and 1.2 for UC Dublin (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.40 for UC Dublin.

Longford Town vs UC Dublin Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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