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Canberra White vs Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:00

Canberra White

PPG 0.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Tigers FC

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 87.9% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.2%0-26.4%0-38.4%0-4+24.2%1 1-00.7%1-12.7%1-25.4%1-37.1%1-4+20.4%2 2-00.3%2-11.1%2-22.3%2-33.0%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 11.1% 9.00 +8.6%

Draw 17.5% 13.3% 7.50 +18.8%

Away win 69.8% 85.5% 1.17 -18.3%

Over 2.5 72.4% 78.1% 1.28 -7.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 61.3% 1.63 -13.3%

BTTS 55.6% 56.8% 1.76 -2.1%

Home O1.5 33.7% 26.7% 3.75 +26.4%

Away O1.5 87.9% 88.5% 1.13 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.0 BTTS prob55.6%

A 70% / xG 0.8-4.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.4%

#2 0–4 8.4%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 1–4 7.1%

#5 0–5 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra White0.8

Tigers FC4.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA WHITE · PPG 0.13

TIGERS FC · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.13)

Win probability 1X2

Canberra White (H) 12.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +8.6%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +18.8%

Tigers FC (A) 69.8%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra White face Tigers FC in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra White a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Tigers FC 70%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Canberra White and 4.0 for Tigers FC (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra White are averaging 0.13 points per game versus 1.50 for Tigers FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Canberra White vs Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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