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Canberra White vs Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:00

Canberra White

PPG 0.13 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tigers FC

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.2%0-26.4%0-38.4%0-4+24.2%1 1-00.7%1-12.7%1-25.4%1-37.1%1-4+20.4%2 2-00.3%2-11.1%2-22.3%2-33.0%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 11.1% 9.00 +8.6%

Draw 17.5% 13.3% 7.50 +18.8%

Away win 69.8% 85.5% 1.17 -18.3%

Over 2.5 72.4% 78.1% 1.28 -7.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 61.3% 1.63 -13.3%

BTTS 55.6% 56.8% 1.76 -2.1%

Home O1.5 33.7% 26.7% 3.75 +26.4%

Away O1.5 87.9% 88.5% 1.13 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.0 BTTS prob55.6%

A 70% / xG 0.8-4.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.4%

#2 0–4 8.4%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 1–4 7.1%

#5 0–5 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra White0.8

Tigers FC4.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA WHITE · PPG 0.13

TIGERS FC · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.13)

Win probability 1X2

Canberra White (H) 12.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +8.6%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +18.8%

Tigers FC (A) 69.8%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra White face Tigers FC in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra White a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Tigers FC 70%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Canberra White and 4.0 for Tigers FC (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra White are averaging 0.13 points per game versus 1.50 for Tigers FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Canberra White vs Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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