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Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:00

Queanbeyan City

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.0%1-14.1%1-24.1%1-32.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.0%3-16.0%3-26.1%3-34.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-19.4%4+-29.4%4+-36.3%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 58.8% 1.70 -9.4%

Draw 19.4% 26.7% 3.75 -16.4%

Away win 27.3% 26.7% 3.75 +1.4%

Over 2.5 75.7% 76.9% 1.30 -1.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 57.1% 1.75 -6.9%

BTTS 69.1% 76.3% 1.31 -9.5%

Home O1.5 75.0% 73.5% 1.36 +2.0%

Away O1.5 49.8% 47.4% 2.11 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 53% / xG 3.0-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 6.1%

#4 3–1 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queanbeyan City3.0

Tuggeranong Utd2.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 2.14

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.14), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Queanbeyan City (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -9.4%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -16.4%

Tuggeranong Utd (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queanbeyan City face Tuggeranong Utd in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queanbeyan City a 53% chance, the draw 19% and Tuggeranong Utd 27%, so Queanbeyan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Queanbeyan City and 2.0 for Tuggeranong Utd (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queanbeyan City are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.00 for Tuggeranong Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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