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Hume City vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 2.11 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dandenong City

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.5%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 56.5% 1.77 -2.5%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 23.2% 27.4% 3.65 -9.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 41.0% 45.5% 2.20 -9.8%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Away O1.5 35.9% 42.6% 2.35 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -3.0%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City2.1

Dandenong City1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 2.11

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -2.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Dandenong City (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Dandenong City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Dandenong City 23%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hume City and 1.1 for Dandenong City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.88 for Dandenong City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Hume City vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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