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Nueva Chicago vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:30

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

CA Guemes

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-19.6%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.3%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

Over 2.5 44.3% 36.4% 2.75 +21.8%

Over 3.5 23.9% 16.7% 6.00 +26.0%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 42.8% 40.0% 2.50 +7.0%

Away O1.5 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0✓ 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.3

CA Guemes0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.33

CA GUEMES · PPG 0.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

CA Guemes (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face CA Guemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 49% chance, the draw 28% and CA Guemes 24%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nueva Chicago and 0.7 for CA Guemes (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.63 for CA Guemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Nueva Chicago vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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