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D. de Belgrano vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:30

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Moron

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.0%0-119.9%0-29.0%0-32.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.4%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.1%2-13.7%2-21.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.8%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 37.7% 2.65 -20.3%

Draw 33.6% 40.0% 2.50 -16.0%

Away win 41.4% 33.3% 3.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

Over 3.5 14.8% 14.3% 7.00 +2.2%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 33.4% 29.4% 3.40 +13.6%

Away O1.5 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.6%

A 41% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.0%

#2 0–1 19.9%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano0.6

Deportivo Moron0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 25.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -20.3%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.0%

Deportivo Moron (A) 41.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 25% chance, the draw 34% and Deportivo Moron 41%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for D. de Belgrano and 0.9 for Deportivo Moron (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-1.

D. de Belgrano vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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