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Almirante Brown vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Los Andes

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-036.5%0-121.8%0-26.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.0%1-19.0%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-03.1%2-11.8%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.4%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 39.2% 2.55 -19.5%

Draw 39.4% 40.0% 2.50 -1.5%

Away win 34.1% 31.3% 3.20 +9.1%

Over 2.5 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -13.2%

Over 3.5 11.6% 12.5% 8.00 -4.3%

BTTS 29.6% 42.6% 2.35 -18.3%

Home O1.5 20.0% 29.9% 3.35 -19.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob29.6%

D 39% / xG 0.4-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 36.5%

#2 0–1 21.8%

#3 1–0✓ 15.0%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.4

Los Andes0.6

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.89

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.89), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 26.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.5%

Draw 39.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -1.5%

Los Andes (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Los Andes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 27% chance, the draw 39% and Los Andes 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for Almirante Brown and 0.6 for Los Andes (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.88 for Los Andes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Almirante Brown vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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