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Almagro vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:30

Almagro

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

A. Rafaela

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.5%0-116.0%0-24.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-111.4%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.0%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 42.9% 2.33 -6.3%

Draw 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

Away win 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Over 2.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Away O1.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 40% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.5%

#2 1–0✓ 19.5%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro0.7

A. Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.78

A. RAFAELA · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=40.2%

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -6.3%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.7%

A. Rafaela (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face A. Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 40% chance, the draw 36% and A. Rafaela 24%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Almagro and 0.6 for A. Rafaela (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.78 for A. Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Almagro vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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