Today / SJK vs TPS

SJK vs TPS Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

SJK

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

TPS

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-113.4%0-27.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.3%2-16.8%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK1.0

TPS1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK · PPG 0.83

TPS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.83) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

SJK (H) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TPS (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK face TPS on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 36% chance, the draw 29% and TPS 35%, so SJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for SJK and 1.1 for TPS (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.50 for TPS.

SJK vs TPS Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions