Today / Tianjin JT vs Shenzhen

Tianjin JT vs Shenzhen Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Tianjin JT
PPG 0.75 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Shenzhen
PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.57)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.0%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 46.2%
Draw 25.7%
Away win 28.2%
Over 2.5 54.1%
Over 3.5 33.2%
BTTS 55.6%
Home O1.5 43.2%
Away O1.5 35.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%
#2 2–1 9.2%
#3 0–0 7.1%
#4 1–0 10.7%
#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tianjin JT1.5
Shenzhen1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TIANJIN JT · PPG 0.75

SHENZHEN · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Tianjin JT (H) 46.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Shenzhen (A) 28.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tianjin JT face Shenzhen on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tianjin JT a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Shenzhen 28%, so Tianjin JT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tianjin JT and 1.1 for Shenzhen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tianjin JT are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.57 for Shenzhen.

PredictVantage

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