Today / Shanghai Jiadin vs S. Gongfu

Shanghai Jiadin vs S. Gongfu Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Shanghai Jiadin

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

S. Gongfu

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-19.7%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.6%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-17.0%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% — — —

Draw 29.6% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 38.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.0% — — —

BTTS 46.5% — — —

Home O1.5 38.7% — — —

Away O1.5 18.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Jiadin1.2

S. Gongfu0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI JIADIN · PPG 1.40

S. GONGFU · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Jiadin (H) 50.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Gongfu (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Jiadin face S. Gongfu on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Jiadin a 50% chance, the draw 30% and S. Gongfu 20%, so Shanghai Jiadin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shanghai Jiadin and 0.6 for S. Gongfu (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Jiadin are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for S. Gongfu.

Shanghai Jiadin vs S. Gongfu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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