Today / Liaoning Tieren vs Chongqing T.

Liaoning Tieren vs Chongqing T. Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.57)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.9%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.4%2-17.1%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 52.3% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 39.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liaoning Tieren1.1

Chongqing T.1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 1.50

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Liaoning Tieren (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chongqing T. (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liaoning Tieren face Chongqing T. on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liaoning Tieren a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Chongqing T. 36%, so Liaoning Tieren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Liaoning Tieren and 1.3 for Chongqing T. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liaoning Tieren are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.57 for Chongqing T..

Liaoning Tieren vs Chongqing T. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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