Today / Start vs Sandefjord

Start vs Sandefjord Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Start

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandefjord

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.2%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.7%2-17.4%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 35.8% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 39.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start1.1

Sandefjord1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 1.20

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 36.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sandefjord (A) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Sandefjord on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Sandefjord 36%, so Start are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Start and 1.3 for Sandefjord (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Sandefjord.

Start vs Sandefjord Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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