Today / Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund

Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.0%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 54.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.2% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 43.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 081.5

Aalesund1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 1.60

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aalesund (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 face Aalesund on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Aalesund 28%, so Sarpsborg 08 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.1 for Aalesund (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Aalesund.

Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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