Today / Molde vs Fredrikstad
Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Saturday, July 4, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 57% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%
Form & verdict
MOLDE · PPG 2.50
FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.67
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=57.5%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Molde face Fredrikstad on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Fredrikstad 20%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Molde and 0.9 for Fredrikstad (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Fredrikstad.