Today / Lillestrom vs Brann

Lillestrom vs Brann Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Lillestrom

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brann

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.7%0-23.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.4%1-26.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.2%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 62.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.7% — — —

Away O1.5 39.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom2.0

Brann1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.80

BRANN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 49.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brann (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Brann on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Brann 28%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lillestrom and 1.4 for Brann (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Brann.

Lillestrom vs Brann Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions