Today / HamKam vs Rosenborg

HamKam vs Rosenborg Prediction

Saturday, July 4, 2026

HamKam

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosenborg

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-14.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-19.4%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.5%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 19.4% — — —

Over 2.5 56.5% — — —

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 52.8% — — —

Home O1.5 57.5% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.8%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HamKam2.0

Rosenborg0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMKAM · PPG 2.50

ROSENBORG · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

HamKam (H) 59.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rosenborg (A) 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HamKam face Rosenborg on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HamKam a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Rosenborg 19%, so HamKam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for HamKam and 0.7 for Rosenborg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HamKam are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.20 for Rosenborg.

HamKam vs Rosenborg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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