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Sotra vs Jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 15:00

Sotra

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jerv

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.2%0-26.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.5%1-112.4%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.4%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 2.00 -27.4%

Draw 27.8% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 36.0% 3.10 +11.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 2.75 -12.2%

BTTS 55.8% 1.57 -12.4%

Home Over 1.5 43.1% 1.85 -20.3%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.45 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -40.5%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.8%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sotra1.3

Jerv1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOTRA · PPG 1.40

JERV · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Sotra (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Jerv (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sotra face Jerv in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sotra a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Jerv 36%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sotra and 1.3 for Jerv (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sotra are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.67 for Jerv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Sotra vs Jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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