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Vidar vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Vidar

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arendal

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.5%0-27.6%0-35.1%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 49.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.8% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 49% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vidar1.3

Arendal2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VIDAR · PPG 0.62

ARENDAL · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.75 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vidar (H) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arendal (A) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vidar face Arendal in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vidar a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Arendal 49%, so Arendal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vidar and 2.0 for Arendal (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vidar are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.71 for Arendal.

Vidar vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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