Today / SM Burzaco vs Flandria

SM Burzaco vs Flandria Prediction

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:00

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Flandria

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-11.6%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.7%1-14.7%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.1%2-17.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.1%3-17.0%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.6%4+-111.1%4+-23.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.1% — — —

Draw 9.9% — — —

Away win 4.0% — — —

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 86% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 69% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.1%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 4–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Burzaco3.0

Flandria0.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.17

FLANDRIA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

SM Burzaco (H) 86.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Flandria (A) 4.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Burzaco face Flandria on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Burzaco a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Flandria 4%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for SM Burzaco and 0.5 for Flandria (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Burzaco are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.60 for Flandria. This match finished 0-1.

SM Burzaco vs Flandria Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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