Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Hume City vs St. Albans

Hume City vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St. Albans

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+29.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.0%1-13.9%1-21.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.6%2-16.7%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.7%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-021.0%4+-116.3%4+-26.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.5% 66.7% 1.50 +29.8%

Draw 8.8% 24.4% 4.10 -63.9%

Away win 4.7% 19.0% 5.25 -75.3%

Over 2.5 79.6% 66.7% 1.50 +19.4%

Over 3.5 61.3% 45.5% 2.20 +34.9%

BTTS 52.4% 64.5% 1.55 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 86% / xG 3.5-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.0%

#2 4–0 8.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City3.5

St. Albans0.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 2.25

ST. ALBANS · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 86.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +29.8%

Draw 8.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -63.9%

St. Albans (A) 4.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -75.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 87% chance, the draw 9% and St. Albans 5%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Hume City and 0.8 for St. Albans (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Hume City vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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