Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / North Sunshine vs M. Victory B

North Sunshine vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 05:00

North Sunshine

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

M. Victory B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.8%0-22.2%0-31.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-01.9%1-14.5%1-25.4%1-34.3%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.3%2-15.6%2-26.7%2-35.4%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.9%3-14.7%3-25.6%3-34.5%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-15.2%4+-26.3%4+-35.0%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 35.7% 2.80 +18.4%

Draw 18.6% 29.4% 3.40 -36.8%

Away win 39.0% 47.6% 2.10 -18.1%

Over 2.5 86.5% — — —

Over 3.5 71.8% — — —

BTTS 83.3% 75.2% 1.33 +10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob83.3%

H 42% / xG 2.5-2.4 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 5.6%

#3 3–2 5.6%

#4 1–2 5.4%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Sunshine2.5

M. Victory B2.4

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.5% · O3.5 PROB 71.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 1.50

M. VICTORY B · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

North Sunshine (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +18.4%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -36.8%

M. Victory B (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Sunshine face M. Victory B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Sunshine a 42% chance, the draw 19% and M. Victory B 39%, so North Sunshine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for North Sunshine and 2.4 for M. Victory B (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Sunshine are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.00 for M. Victory B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-4.

North Sunshine vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions