Today / C. Croatia vs Tuggeranong Utd

C. Croatia vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction

Sunday, June 28, 2026

C. Croatia

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.4%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.1%1-11.9%1-21.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-02.4%2-14.0%2-23.3%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.4%3-15.7%3-24.7%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-119.6%4+-216.3%4+-39.0%4+-4+5.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 65.3% — —

Draw 17.1% — —

Away win 17.6% — —

Over 2.5 83.0% — —

Over 3.5 63.5% — —

BTTS 68.6% — —

Home Over 1.5 77.8% — —

Away Over 1.5 49.7% — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.6%

H 65% / xG 4.3-1.7 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.1%

#2 3–1 5.7%

#3 5–1 5.2%

#4 4–2 5.1%

#5 3–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Croatia4.3

Tuggeranong Utd1.7

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

C. CROATIA · PPG 3.00

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away GOOD (1.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

C. Croatia (H) 65.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tuggeranong Utd (A) 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Croatia face Tuggeranong Utd on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Croatia a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Tuggeranong Utd 18%, so C. Croatia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for C. Croatia and 1.7 for Tuggeranong Utd (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Croatia are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Tuggeranong Utd.

C. Croatia vs Tuggeranong Utd Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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