Today / Rovaniemi vs SalPa

Rovaniemi vs SalPa Prediction

Saturday, June 27, 2026

Rovaniemi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

SalPa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.2%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.8%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.7%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-18.4%4+-24.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.9% — —

Draw 22.0% — —

Away win 20.2% — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — —

Over 3.5 42.2% — —

BTTS 61.6% — —

Home Over 1.5 60.6% — —

Away Over 1.5 36.3% — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rovaniemi2.4

SalPa1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROVANIEMI · PPG 2.00

SALPA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.9%

Win probability 1X2

Rovaniemi (H) 57.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SalPa (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rovaniemi face SalPa on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rovaniemi a 58% chance, the draw 22% and SalPa 20%, so Rovaniemi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Rovaniemi and 1.1 for SalPa (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rovaniemi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for SalPa.

Rovaniemi vs SalPa Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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