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Queanbeyan City vs Canberra White Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 05:00

Queanbeyan City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Canberra White

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-12.3%1-21.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.8%2-14.9%2-22.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-16.8%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-026.0%4+-121.7%4+-29.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 83.3% 1.20 -19.4%

Draw 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Away win 16.0% 11.1% 9.00 +26.4%

Over 2.5 76.0% 76.9% 1.30 -1.2%

Over 3.5 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

BTTS 60.2% 61.3% 1.63 -1.9%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob60.2%

H 67% / xG 4.2-0.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.5%

#2 3–0 8.1%

#3 5–0 7.1%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queanbeyan City4.2

Canberra White0.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 2.00

CANBERRA WHITE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Queanbeyan City (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -19.4%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

Canberra White (A) 16.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queanbeyan City face Canberra White in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queanbeyan City a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Canberra White 16%, so Queanbeyan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Queanbeyan City and 0.8 for Canberra White (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queanbeyan City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Canberra White. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Queanbeyan City vs Canberra White Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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