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OConnor Knight vs C. Olympic Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:30

OConnor Knight

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

C. Olympic

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.1%0-23.0%0-32.9%0-4+4.3%1 1-01.5%1-14.2%1-26.1%1-35.9%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.3%2-36.1%2-4+8.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.9%3-24.3%3-34.1%3-4+6.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.4%4+-23.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 3.30 -3.8%

Draw 19.9% 3.70 -15.8%

Away win 51.7% 1.80 -6.9%

Over 2.5 75.6% 1.25 -5.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.58 -16.4%

BTTS 68.6% 1.23 -15.6%

Home Over 1.5 57.9% 1.81 +4.8%

Away Over 1.5 73.0% 1.33 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 84%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob68.6%

A 52% / xG 2.0-2.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 1–2 6.1%

#3 2–3 6.1%

#4 1–3 5.9%

#5 1–1 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OConnor Knight2.0

C. Olympic2.9

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OCONNOR KNIGHT · PPG 1.13

C. OLYMPIC · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

OConnor Knight (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.8%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.8%

C. Olympic (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

OConnor Knight face C. Olympic in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OConnor Knight a 28% chance, the draw 20% and C. Olympic 52%, so C. Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for OConnor Knight and 2.9 for C. Olympic (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OConnor Knight are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.29 for C. Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.5%.

OConnor Knight vs C. Olympic Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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