Today / TPS vs Jaro

TPS vs Jaro Prediction

Saturday, June 27, 2026

TPS

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaro

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=58.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-15.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.0%1-19.8%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.3%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-14.7%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 58.8% — —

Draw 23.0% — —

Away win 18.2% — —

Over 2.5 49.8% — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — —

BTTS 48.1% — —

Home Over 1.5 52.6% — —

Away Over 1.5 18.0% — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.1%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPS1.7

Jaro0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TPS · PPG 2.17

JARO · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=58.8%

Win probability 1X2

TPS (H) 58.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jaro (A) 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TPS face Jaro on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPS a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Jaro 18%, so TPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for TPS and 0.5 for Jaro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPS are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.29 for Jaro.

TPS vs Jaro Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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