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AC Oulu vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

AC Oulu

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.4%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-17.0%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 41.3% 2.42 +29.9%

Draw 22.3% 29.0% 3.45 -13.8%

Away win 24.0% 38.8% 2.58 -22.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 58.8% 1.70 +8.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 37.0% 2.70 +8.8%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 47.6% 2.10 +26.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Oulu2.1

Ilves1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AC OULU · PPG 2.29

ILVES · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AC Oulu (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +29.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.8%

Ilves (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Oulu face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Oulu a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves 24%, so AC Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AC Oulu and 1.1 for Ilves (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Oulu are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.67 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.4%.

AC Oulu vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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