Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / SJK vs HJK Helsinki

SJK vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

SJK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.5%0-26.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 31.3% 3.20 +10.1%

Draw 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

Away win 41.1% 50.8% 1.97 -19.0%

Over 2.5 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Over 3.5 33.5% 44.4% 2.25 -24.6%

BTTS 57.8% 70.4% 1.42 -17.9%

Home O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

Away O1.5 45.0% 58.8% 1.70 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 30.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.8%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK1.3

HJK Helsinki1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK · PPG 1.00

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SJK (H) 34.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.9%

HJK Helsinki (A) 41.1%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 34% chance, the draw 25% and HJK Helsinki 41%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SJK and 1.4 for HJK Helsinki (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.38 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

SJK vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions