Today / Ariana vs Jonkopings

Ariana vs Jonkopings Prediction

Saturday, June 27, 2026

Ariana

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonkopings

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — —

Draw 24.5% — —

Away win 27.0% — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — —

Over 3.5 37.1% — —

BTTS 58.3% — —

Home Over 1.5 52.6% — —

Away Over 1.5 36.3% — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.3%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ariana1.7

Jonkopings1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIANA · PPG 1.57

JONKOPINGS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Win probability 1X2

Ariana (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jonkopings (A) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ariana face Jonkopings on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ariana a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Jonkopings 27%, so Ariana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ariana and 1.2 for Jonkopings (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ariana are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.33 for Jonkopings.

Ariana vs Jonkopings Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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