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Stocksund vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.50 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gefle IF

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.9%0-23.2%0-32.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.8%1-16.2%1-26.8%1-35.0%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.1%3-14.6%3-25.1%3-33.8%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.0%4+-24.4%4+-33.3%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 35.7% 2.80 +6.7%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

Over 2.5 73.0% 70.4% 1.42 +3.7%

Over 3.5 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

BTTS 69.6% 73.5% 1.36 -5.3%

Home O1.5 61.4% 51.8% 1.93 +18.5%

Away O1.5 60.5% 59.9% 1.67 +1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.6%

A 40% / xG 2.1-2.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund2.1

Gefle IF2.2

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.50

GEFLE IF · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +6.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Gefle IF (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Gefle IF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Gefle IF 40%, so Gefle IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stocksund and 2.2 for Gefle IF (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Gefle IF. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Stocksund vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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