Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Vasalund vs Sollentuna

Vasalund vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Vasalund

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sollentuna

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.0%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 54.1% 1.85 -32.7%

Draw 25.3% 26.7% 3.75 -3.1%

Away win 38.3% 29.9% 3.35 +28.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 65.4% 1.53 -18.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.6% 2.35 -24.3%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 33.1% 60.6% 1.65 -45.4%

Away O1.5 45.3% 43.5% 2.30 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasalund1.2

Sollentuna1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VASALUND · PPG 1.50

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vasalund (H) 36.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -32.7%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.1%

Sollentuna (A) 38.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasalund face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasalund a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Sollentuna 38%, so Sollentuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vasalund and 1.5 for Sollentuna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasalund are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Sollentuna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.8%.

Vasalund vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions