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Hammarby Talang vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:30

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arlanda

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-19.9%0-26.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.5%1-112.6%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 65.4% 1.53 -42.3%

Draw 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

Away win 35.1% 20.8% 4.80 +68.5%

Over 2.5 51.8% 69.0% 1.45 -24.9%

Over 3.5 29.4% 46.5% 2.15 -22.1%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 35.4% 70.4% 1.42 -49.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 35.7% 2.80 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

A 35% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang1.3

Arlanda1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.33

ARLANDA · PPG 2.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 37.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -42.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.5%

Arlanda (A) 35.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +68.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Arlanda 35%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hammarby Talang and 1.3 for Arlanda (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.7%.

Hammarby Talang vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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