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U. Catolica vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:30

U. Catolica

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Libertad

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 79% chance

Model probability 86.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-11.7%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.2%1-14.3%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.2%2-15.4%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.2%3-14.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-15.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.2% 75.8% 1.32 +13.8%

Draw 11.1% 20.6% 4.85 -46.2%

Away win 2.7% 10.6% 9.40 -74.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Over 3.5 31.2% 38.2% 2.62 -18.3%

BTTS 22.7% 51.8% 1.93 -56.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob22.7%

H 86% / xG 2.5-0.3 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 19.2%

#2 3–0 16.2%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 4–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica2.5

Libertad0.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 2.50

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

79%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 86.2%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV +13.8%

Draw 11.1%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -46.2%

Libertad (A) 2.7%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -74.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 86% chance, the draw 11% and Libertad 3%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for U. Catolica and 0.3 for Libertad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-0.

U. Catolica vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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